The chance of war between Ukraine and Russia has never been higher. This is now a red alert situation that could end up involving the US and numerous allies.
NATO troops are reportedly moving into position at this time. This comes in an effort to show a united front against the 100,000 Russian troops and assets poised on the eastern border of Ukraine.
These NATO troops include French, Spanish, Portuguese, Italian, Baltic, Scandinavian and other European soldiers, airmen and personnel. They also come with assets like fighter jets, tanks and artillery.
Ireland is now also sending troops, partly in response to Russia deciding it’s going to do naval drills near Ireland’s coast.
NATO Moves into Position
NATO (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization) includes the US, Canada, Germany and many EU countries.
Russia objects to NATO expanding eastward, including into the Baltic states like Lithuania and Estonia.
Russia is also furious at NATO’s rhetoric about bringing Ukraine and the Republic of Georgia into the alliance.
Although many point out that NATO doesn’t necessarily actually want Ukraine in the alliance, the rhetoric about bringing them in and expanding influence there set Moscow on edge.
At this point, Russia is basically exerting maximal pressure and demanding to get ironclad guarantees that NATO expansion will stop now.
If that guarantee can’t be given, it’s clear Russia will take no options off the table.
NATO is now moving into position, with Brussels bringing in various allies. Germany, for one, however, is less committed.
They don’t want to throw their natural gas relationship with Russia into jeopardy right now.
Allies are sending more ships & jets to enhance #NATO defensive deployments in eastern Europe. A strong sign of allied solidarity.
🇩🇰 F-16 jets to Lithuania
🇫🇷 troops to Romania
🇳🇱 F-35 jets to Bulgaria
🇪🇸 frigate heading to the Black Seahttps://t.co/2GnJKupEA9 pic.twitter.com/UvsRXpkvLT
— Oana Lungescu (@NATOpress) January 24, 2022
Will There Be War or Not?
With all this buildup, it’s fair to ask whether this is going to turn into a shooting war or not. Are we looking at conflict in the near future or is this more of a show of strength as each side seeks to expand and keep influence?
The best analysts in the world have only one accurate answer to this question: we don’t know.
This situation can spiral rapidly out of control at literally any moment. It could end up not being a hot war.
It could end up being a series of small skirmishes followed by emergency meetings and a truce.
Or, unfortunately, it could become a massive and multi-front war that will throw Europe into chaos and possibly involve America and our allies.
A really good move would be if Nato troops would provide defence (SAM units and anti-sabotage teams) for Ukrainian strategic installations: nuclear power plants, dams, chemical plants. This would demonstrate support AND protect the whole Europe from a very possible Chernobyl 2.0
— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) January 24, 2022
What to Do Next
With NATO nations moving troops and assets into position and arming up the Ukrainian forces, this situation is as tense as it could be, short of war.
Putin is not going to back down, and Biden’s statements so far have been bizarre and extremely weak.
We must be vigilant and pay attention. The chance of war has never been higher.